Monday, September 9, 2013

Ain't THAT A Kick In the AGW Pants!

And now it's global COOLING! Record return of Arctic ice cap as it grows by 60% in a year
A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

The rebound from 2012’s record low comes six years after the BBC reported that global warming would leave the Arctic ice-free in summer by 2013.

Instead, days before the annual autumn re-freeze is due to begin, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores.
See, that's the whole issue I have with the ZOMG GLOBAL WARMENING WILL KILL US ALL crowd. We were treated ad nauseum to dire predictions of an ice-free Arctic, where polar bears were drowning, not all that long ago. The science is settled! we were told, repeatedly, any time we raised any questions. Here we are, less than a decade later, and Whoops! Everything we told you last decade was wrong. Sorry you sold all your possessions and moved into a cave! Except they won't apologize for being wrong - because Anthropogenic Global Warming is a religious belief, not a rational position. They are so SURE that global warming is happening that any events to the contrary cease to exist in their view.

I've long held that there are four pieces of the puzzle that need to be addressed before we give global warming the kind of interest the True Believers would like:

1. Is this *really* global warming outside the normal range of temperature fluctuations over time periods?
2. Is it *really* caused by the hand of man, or are there outside forces at work (sunspots, volcanic eruption, etc.)?
3. Could we do anything about the warming if 1 & 2 were proven?
4. Is global warming necessarily a bad thing?

Issues 3 and 4 are the "do something" phase. We're still full-on into 1 & 2, where it's not particularly established whether the temperature fluctuations we've seen over the past 40 or so years are anything more than normal variations. Remember, they were predicting the next Ice Age back in the 1970s, and it looks like they're back to that now. They're trying to have it both ways - they want to use extremely short periods of time (when it comes to predicting long term trends in climate) as an indication of abnormal warming, yet when it swings back the other way, they want us to ignore that data because "it's not long enough".

And, quite frankly, I find the irony simply delicious. All those polar bears we were told would be drowning as the ice floes melted are now up to their eyeballs in fresh ice pack. Al Gore can start refunding "carbon credits" any day now, right? We're all done, global warming has been solved, start driving SUVs again. It's for the polar bears! Now, I hate to step on my #1 blogson's schtick (especially since he so kindly pimped my KTKC fundraiser), but I had to point out the tasty,tasty irony...

Because, as I've said before, you can't spell schadenfreude without a dictionary...

That is all.

8 comments:

Armed Texan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Armed Texan said...

I drive my massive Durango (the old style) as much as I can and this still happens! It's been across the continent twice. They promised me warmer weather if I kept driving it and burning all that gas. I even moved up to New Hampshire since it should be hotter and the winters shorter. I want my refund now!

Rob said...

For millions of years (since the continents collided and formed the Himalayan mountains) the earth has had a cycle of 100k to 250k years of ice age followed by around 10k of 'good' climate before the next round of ice age starts.
That is (to me) a tough cycle to break by someone who doesn't even really know what causes the ice ages to start.

I think the interglacial period is ending, mankind has done all this expanding in this short period of 'good' climate & we have 7 billion people on the earth.
Things are going to change if the earth continues it's cycles.

Global warming is a fine opportunity to make more money & set your family up for a change in the climate.

Windy Wilson said...

Global cooling, global warming, acid rain, ozone holes, peak oil, Alar on the apples, paraquat on the weed, the specific symptom is irrelevant, all the world's troubles are caused by inadquate levels of gigantic all-powerful yet benevolent government.

And they say Christians believe in impossible stuff!

Ed said...

We have short memories. This is just another fluctuation in the glaciation cycle.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/abrupt/data2.html

In Florida, there are estimates that there is a 450 foot difference in sea level between the glacial shoreline and the interglacial shoreline. We are not yet at the peak of the interglacial sea level, as we have 150 feet to go:

http://www.clas.ufl.edu/users/guerry/GLY4155/sp35/fig16.gif

Ed said...

Then again, some claim that the mantle is changing, altering the sea level estimates:

http://www.rdmag.com/news/2013/05/earth%E2%80%99s-mantle-may-affect-long-term-sea-level-rise-estimates

firedigger said...

Whew! I was starting to feel a little guilt, having just taken delivery of a brand-new Ram 2500 Earthf*cker diesel. Now I am proud of doing my part to try to reverse the plunge toward the next Ice Age.

The Scribbler said...

Another important aspect to 1/2 is the heat island effect. We know cities are getting hotter, that's not under consideration particularly. The question is how much urbification skews the global data. It's tricky, since reliable data is much more available for a much longer span in and around cities, but the city itself is a major confounding aspect. Too much of the data is crap, and no one is quite certain which bits.

Do we know enough to say AGW isn't happening? No.
Do we know enough to say it is? Absolutely not.
Do we know enough to regulate in either direction? HAHAHAHAHA no.