Monday, November 5, 2012

Ain't Gonna Happen, Borepatch.

Not with headlines like this:

Obama leads; Romney with chance in electoral race
COLUMBUS, Ohio — President Barack Obama enters the final hours of the 2012 campaign with an edge in the hunt for the 270 electoral votes needed to win and more ways to reach that magic number. Yet the race is remarkably close in at least six states that could go either way, giving Republican Mitt Romney hope that he can pull off a come-from-behind victory.

If the election were held now, an Associated Press analysis found that Obama would be all but assured of 249 votes, by carrying 20 states that are solidly Democratic or leaning his way — Iowa, Nevada and Pennsylvania among them — and the District of Columbia. Romney would lay claim to 206, from probable victories in 24 states that are strong Republican turf or tilt toward the GOP, including North Carolina.
Like Robb says, Romney is nowhere near outside the margin of cheat. I guarantee you that Romney won't win WI or NV; I don't even see him picking up NC. FL and OH, well, they're up for grabs and it's a Mormon businessman against a Chicago political machine graduate. Don't bet on the Mormon.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict a 300+ electoral college vote win - for Obama. I suspect he'll "win" the majority of the toss-up states in play and cruise to an easy victory. Allegations of widespread voter fraud will be laughed off as conservative conspiracy theories, and Mitt Romney will go back to being just another rich dude. The only bright spot will be if the GOP can wrestle control of the Senate and create gridlock - but I'm not even counting on that.

I suspect there are going to be a lot of disappointed folks on Wednesday morning...

That is all.

20 comments:

Mark said...

Those poll sample are skewed. Check unskewedpolls dot com to see how the polls are lying. the last poll used a +11 democrat response so of course obama is up.

Angus McThag said...

If Obama wins I will not be disappointed. The congressional races are going solid R and I wouldn't be shocked if we got impeachment proceedings out of them.

The media might not care about FnF and Bengazi, but we do.

Heath J said...

Cheap entertainment, support a Libertarian party candidate in Ohio and watch all of your Republican friends 'asplode.

Borepatch said...

Jay, Mark has it right. Today's CNN poll that has Obama up by 1 or 2 has a D+11 sample. That means that they think the following:

1. Democrat turnout is going to be even higher than it was in 2008, i.e. Democrats are more enthusiastic about Obama today than they were 4 years ago.

2. Republican turnout will be lower than it was in 2008, i.e. GOP voters are more demoralized than they were 4 years ago.

3. Independents will go to Obama by a majority, i.e. map the same I+7 that they did in 2008.

None of those pass the laugh test. Obama can't fill a venue in Madison Wisconsin, for crying out loud. Romney is rescheduling all his events to get larger venues, and is packing stadiums. It looks like Independents prefer Romney by double digits.

There's a massive disconnect between the polls and what we are seeing unfold before us. I actually think I've figured out why *all* the polls are doing this, but that will be a post tomorrow. In the mean time, the poll data shows big, big trouble for Obama. The Press just hopes that nobody will pay attention to anything but the headline.

And OBTW, I'm in Angus' camp. I'm not thrilled with a prospect of a crushing Romney victory.

Mike said...

As stated above, look at the internals of the polls.

In the CNN poll mentioned, the D/R split was a completely ludicrous D+11, Independents break for Romney 59/37 and they have it TIED?

Sorry...ain't buying it.

Anonymous said...

Dude, you're basing this off CNN and Associated Press polls? C'mon Jay, I thought you had a little more sense than that. The media has been so deeply in the tank for Obama for so long you really should be expecting them to try anything to cover for their golden boy. Especially skewing poll numbers, ignoring positive signs for Romney and outright lying. I don't think Romney has it in the bag either, but I'm doubting very highly your 300+ electoral votes prediction.

Jay G said...

The vast majority of people get their news from "CNN and AP polls".

As far as the vast majority of American people know, the race is neck-and-neck. When Obama pulls of a squeaker (from stuffing ballots, intimidation, and other chicanery), it'll be cheered as a staving off of the "radical right wing" attack.

The folks scratching their heads and pointing out what y'all have above will be written off as crazy right wingers - just like Fast & Furious was.

Alternately, they may be working pre-emptively to de-legitimize the Romney presidency. If he pulls off a Reagan/Carter stomping, the media's call will be that he OBVIOUSLY stole the election since it was SO CLOSE going in...

I don't trust Chicago politics, not one whit.

They don't just control the media. They control the vote counting...

Exurbankevin said...

On the other hand, Michael Barone, who's forgotten more about American politics than this entire thread has learned, says Romney wins easily.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-beats-obama-handily/article/2512470#.UJgMqKX8-J0

Borepatch said...

Jay, there won't be much of a Media left in another 4 or 8 years. CNN's ratings have collapsed to where they have fewer than 400,000 viewers.

In 2004, Evan Thomas (Newsweek) said that the Media advantage would give Kerry/Edwards a 5 point edge. Newsweek prints its last copy next month.

I think that the biggest conclusion that everyone will draw from this election is that the Media is well and truly busted, meaning "ineffective in influencing the outcome of an election".

Yes, the Democrats will try to cheat, but the only examples where they succeeded were in very, very close elections - Washington State governor's race and Minnesota Senate Race (Al Franken). They failed in Florida in 2000.

Sure, the Democrats will do their best to de-legitimize Romney. Their problem is that Romney is not at all scary to almost all of the country, so when they dial the hysteria up to 11 they just hurt themselves.

Not sure where this will go, but tomorrow ain't going to be close. The Democrats will melt down, but will get bupkis from that.

And we'll have a big government, statist prick for a President.

Bubblehead Les. said...

Well, I predict one of three things that will happen come Wednesday:

A) Romney Wins by enough that Court Battles will be useless, and the Liberal Media has a Massive Stroke.

B) Obama Wins by enough that Court Battles will be useless, and the Liberal Media has a Massive Orgasm.

C) It's too close to call, (and we'll all be wishing for a nice, calm recount like in Florida in 2000), and the Liberal Media will goes Nuts, along with every Occupying, Union-Thuggery, Progressive Idiot in the Nation.

All I know is, 2 Votes for Romney were hand-delivered weeks ago to my local Board of Election (LOVE those Absentee Ballots!) and the rest is up to "My Fellow Citizens."

And my Powder is Dry.

Dave H said...

and the Liberal Media has a Massive Stroke.

Wow, I hope it's televised!


Glenn B said...

I have been pessimistic too and have been considering a major ammo purchase although 5.56 in 62 & 64 grain weights is very difficult to find. I may have to settle for 55 grain. I mean, why wait until after the election because if Obama wins again thereis sure to be a mass buyout of popular calibers.

Daniel in Brookline said...

Let's keep this simple.

Jay, I'll bet you that Romney wins. (I think he'll win decisively, but for the purposes of a bet, let's just say that he wins.)

So, do we have a bet, payable with range time after the shouting is over? Winner pays for lunch; loser pays for ammo.

cheers,
DiB

Jay G said...

Daniel,

I'm so confident that Romney is going to lose I'll take that bet, and up the ante: If Romney wins, I will buy both lunch *and* supply the ammo for the shoot.

Deal?

Robert said...

I just want Obama to stay the hell put of Madison. They keep closing the roads (including Interstate-friggin' 90)and it does not make my morning commute a calm thing to see multiple cops and barricades at every friggin' intersection on my way to work. The Sheraton hotel had two humungous dump truck/snowplows blocking all access in and out; apparently the annointed one had stayed there last night. I just wanna get to work without spilling my coffee or having a LEO demand to know why I'm carrying...

Daniel in Brookline said...

Deal!

Be sure to bring plenty of 9mm and .45.

Ed said...

Jay,
That is a bet that you could celebrate losing.

Anonymous said...

Jay,

You underestimate the canniness, diligence, and sheer stubborness of Mormon businessmen. (Don't feel bad, most of the Republican primary hopefuls made the same mistake.)

While the Chicago machine has been parasitically leaching off the City of Broad Shoulders, while said city has been eclipsed by Los Angeles, and is on the verge of being eclipsed by Atlanta, Dallas and Houston, those same Mormon businessmen have been an integral part of the organization that has built over 120 temples throughout the world.

I'm not saying Chicago's not going to try to steal it, just that I don't think they'll manage it.

Larry said...

Based on my SWAG (Scientific Wise-Ass Guess) poll results (counting car stickers and yard signs) North Carolina is going red this year. Possibly in a big way.

doubletrouble said...

Jay- Given my record of presidential predictions (see '08), I'm reluctant to comment.
BUT- I blew the call last time, & in my apology post you commented that I had not been paying attention to the 0 team & the public adoration.
I think the shoe's on the other foot, this time.
'Sides, BP's data is ALWAYS right...
;^)