Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Ooh, A Game!

Let's play a game! I'm going to call it "What Important Piece of Information Is Missing Here?"

Polls Show Neck-and-Neck Race » This header leads to this article:

Obama, Romney pumped for dash to the finish
DELRAY BEACH, Fla. — With just two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama on Tuesday began a cross-country rush to hold onto office in tough economic times with a new booklet outlining his second-term agenda and a closing argument that the choice comes down to trust.

The president emerged from the last of his debates with Republican Mitt Romney fueled by a rush of adrenaline matched by thousands of boisterous supporters who filled the outdoor Delray Tennis Center to hear him speak. The crowd repeatedly interrupted Obama's 22-minute speech with applause and chants of "four more years" that drowned out his remarks.
I mean, aside from starting out as little more than a rah-rah go-get-em Barry propaganda piece, that is?

How about this: When you call something a "neck-and-neck" race, how about giving some, you know, poll numbers to go with it? They include some vague information on the number of states that appear likely to vote for Obama vs Romney, but with neither having a lock on the total electoral votes needed for a win, the crucial battleground states mean that neither is within striking distance.

But there are no information on polls for any of the critical states. There are no nationwide polls. There's no numbers other than the electoral votes that each candidate is far enough ahead in that state to earn - Obama with 237, Romney with 191. There are still 110 electoral votes up for grabs - and no polls showing who is ahead in any of those races. Curious, is it not?

Let's take the "battleground" states that are named in the article: Ohio, Florida, and Virgina. With 60 electoral votes up for grabs in these three states, Obama could secure a lock on the win, right? Well, in OH, Romney's down by 5% - except that he was down by 10% last month. Wrong trend for Obama, especially with 2 weeks left. Other polls put the two within 3 points. In Florida the news is even worse for Obama, with Romney ahead by 1 - 3% and gaining. Virginia is also a dead heat between the two, with polls showing anywhere from a 5 point lead for Obama to a three point lead for Romney.

This isn't a runaway like my #1 blogson would like to think. This is a horse race (no bayonets, though) that is far too close to call right now - and it is nowhere near outside the margin of chicanery the likes of which we saw in Florida in 2000 or in Minnesota in 2008. Voter ID laws - one of the few ways to keep the dead and illegal from voting - have been struck down by the Obama Justice department, so it's not like we'll see any change (or hope) there.

I hope I'm wrong, don't misunderstand - I just hold out little hope against Chicago-style politics...

That is all.


Sabra said...

I have such a hard time with the concept of Virginia as a battleground state, having spent two Presidential elections there. But then, I was hanging around the military, so that probably skewed my viewpoint somewhat. (I happened to spend election day '00 at the ER at the Navy hospital there, and there was palpable anger in the air when it briefly looked as though Al Gore had won.)

Still and all, if that state goes blue, I'll need smelling salts.

Jake (formerly Riposte3) said...

Sabra: The problem areas are mainly in Arlington and the surrounding suburbs - essentially, the extended DC area. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy... unless, of course, you cross the beltway into DC proper. There's an unfortunate concentration of Democrats and big-gov independents living on the VA side of DC that's big enough to skew the polling of the entire state.

Richmond also has an unfortunate concentration of those types, and most of the rest of the state despises them.

On a side note, Jay, here's an "interesting" scenario that seems entirely possible - a Romney/Biden administration. I'm not sure if that would be good, bad, or neutral, but it would certainly be entertaining.

Ed said...

The latest poll results from ABC News/Washington Post of likely voters has support for Romney at 48.51% leading support for Obama at 48.44%. The 0.07% difference is essentially a tie, especially because of the 3% sampling error.

Bubblehead Les. said...

Well, I hope the Supreme Court doesn't have any plans to take a Long Thanksgiving Recess. MY polling Data says that they're gonna be kinda busy.

Borepatch said...

This isn't a runaway like my #1 blogson would like to think.

Oh yes it is. ;-)

Remember, a whole bunch of folks aren't political junkies, and only start paying attention in the last 3 or 4 weeks of the election. There's *no* evidence that this group is breaking for Obama. There's a *ton* of evidence *everywhere* that this group is breaking for Romney.

If this race were close, you'd see evidence of Obama picking *something* up *somewhere*. You don't. All you get are cooked polls.

Stick a fork in him, he's done. Oh, and get your ass to the polls. ;-)